Tim Scott Vows a Senate Vote on the CLARITY Act This Week as Bitcoin Holds $64K

The CLARITY Act is back on the table — at least rhetorically. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, said Thursday that the chamber “should have the first vote” on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before lawmakers leave for the August recess, telling Fox Business that Majority Leader John Thune still had time to schedule a cloture vote in the coming days. “The good news is we have the time to get it done,” Scott said. Friday, August 7, is the Senate’s last working day before the break; the chamber does not return until mid-September.

The vote math is tight

Scott’s comments echo a push from Senator Cynthia Lummis, who on Wednesday urged leadership to take up the bill before recess. But the path remains narrow: any scheduled vote would need 60 votes to clear the Senate, and two issues are still unresolved. Democrats continue to raise concerns about President Trump’s crypto investments, and banking industry representatives want the bill to include licensing and restrictions for crypto firms that handle stablecoins. Whether leadership can square those demands with the calendar — and actually file a cloture motion — is the open question heading into Friday. Prediction markets reflect the skepticism: odds of enactment in 2026 have fallen to roughly 28–30%, down from 70–75% in late July. Our French edition laid out the full vote timeline.

A flat tape as “stagflation” talk returns

Markets, for their part, were unimpressed. Bitcoin spent the US session pinned in the low-$64,000s, down about 0.5% on the day, with stocks opening flat and gold at six-week highs. The macro narrative shifted Thursday as analysts flagged a reemerging “stagflation” risk in Wednesday’s ISM Services PMI: the headline index ticked up 0.1 point to 54.1 in July, but the employment component dropped 3.6 points to 47.4 — its lowest since March — while the prices-paid index surged 2.6 points to 70.3, near the highest since October 2022. The Kobeissi Letter called the combination of rising prices and a weakening labor market a sign that stagflation odds are “intensifying.”

Geopolitics stayed in the background: Iran’s deputy foreign minister tempered hopes that an Iran–Oman understanding would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and WTI crude held near $76 a barrel after hitting three-week lows. On-chain analysts see a market going nowhere fast — Glassnode described bitcoin’s action as “boredom rather than capitulation,” a “compressed, under-owned market that global risk appetite has left behind,” while Bitfinex Research said a genuine breakdown would need “something more forceful.” All eyes now turn to Friday’s July jobs report, the last major catalyst before the weekend.

ETF inflows keep rolling

The one clear bright spot: institutional flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $244.4 million on Wednesday, extending the inflow streak to three consecutive sessions and $626 million to open August, according to SoSoValue and Farside data. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $479 million over the three sessions, pushing its cumulative net inflows to nearly $61 billion. Spot Ether ETFs added $60.9 million — a second straight day of inflows — while XRP ETFs saw a modest $3.58 million outflow. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains deep in “Extreme Fear” at 25, a reading that has historically coincided with rangebound, accumulation-style tape rather than capitulation.

Prediction markets: the floor is certain, the ceiling is not

Polymarket’s bitcoin markets capture the mood precisely. Across 33 active BTC contracts, the standout feature is absolute confidence in the downside floor: traders price a 100% probability that bitcoin stays above $58,000 on August 7 (and 100% for the $52K–$58K thresholds), with a 100% read on $54,000 for August 8.

The upside tells a different story. The biggest 24-hour moves were all cuts to high-strike probabilities:

• Bitcoin above $66,000 on August 8: 7.5% — down 12.0 points from 19.5% a day earlier, the largest move across all tracked markets
• Bitcoin above $66,000 on August 7: 2.8% (−11.7 pts, from 14.5%)
• Bitcoin above $66,000 on August 10: 17.0% (−9.5 pts, from 26.5%)
• Bitcoin above $64,000 on August 8: 62.5% (−5.0 pts, from 67.5%)
• Bitcoin above $64,000 on August 10: 59.0% (−4.0 pts, from 63.0%)

In short: traders see essentially no chance of a breakdown below the $58K area, but conviction that bitcoin reclaims $66,000 has collapsed, and even the $64,000 level is now priced below 63% for next week. That is a market positioned for more sideways chop into the jobs report — with the CLARITY Act vote as the wildcard that could finally break the range.

Data: Polymarket (gamma-api + clob), indicative only. This article is informational and does not constitute investment advice; always do your own research.