Bitcoin Holds $64K as ETF Inflows Return and the Dow Hits a Record; Gold Jumps 4%
Bitcoin spent the August 5 US session holding the low-$64,000s — roughly flat on the day, near $64,660 — while Wall Street delivered a split picture: the Dow Jones closed at a record for a third straight session (+0.5%, 54,349), but the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,723 and the Nasdaq lost 0.8% to 26,363 as tech lagged. Gold stole the show with a 4% jump, its best one-day gain in six months, while the dollar slid to near six-week lows.
Macro: soft data, hawkish Fed
Two data points came in under forecasts during the session. ADP reported just +44,000 private payrolls for July against a +65,000 consensus, and the ISM services index rose 0.1 point to 54.1, shy of the 54.5 expected. Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish tone, which kept rate-cut expectations in check and capped the equity rally’s upside into the close. The July jobs report lands Friday and now carries more weight than usual.
Bitcoin’s reaction was muted — the macro crosscurrents (soft data vs. hawkish Fed) largely offset each other. The broader picture hasn’t changed: BTC has traded a $62,000–$66,000 band for two months, about 49% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198, with rotation toward AI-related equities, elevated rates and a relatively firm dollar limiting upside momentum. Ether gained about 2%, while XRP and Dogecoin lagged.
ETF inflows are back — two days in a row
The most notable crypto-specific development of the session was the return of sustained inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. After a $265 million outflow on July 31, the funds took in $170.1 million on Monday, August 3, and $211.5 million on Tuesday, August 4, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading at $170.3 million and no fund reporting outflows on Tuesday. Wednesday’s figures were still settling after the close but tracking positive.
The flows matter for a structural reason: this is the first halving cycle in which spot ETFs exist, and daily fund flows now routinely exceed the value of newly mined bitcoin. Analysts debating the reliability of the so-called “500-day rule” — which points to a buy window opening around late November and a sell signal in mid-2029 — argue institutional demand and macro conditions may now matter more than miner supply dynamics.
On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act’s August 5 deadline passed without a Senate floor vote, sending its Polymarket odds down to roughly 14% as the chamber heads toward recess. Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing for a vote before the break. Our French edition covered the CLARITY Act deadline in detail.
Prediction markets: $64K odds jump 19 points
Polymarket’s Bitcoin markets repriced sharply higher on Wednesday, led by the $64,000 threshold:
- Bitcoin above $64,000 on August 6: 81.5% — up 19.0 points from 62.5% a day earlier, the biggest 24-hour move across the 44 active BTC markets tracked
- Bitcoin above $64,000 on August 7: 72.0% (+12.5 pts)
- Bitcoin above $64,000 on August 8: 68.5% (+10.5 pts)
- Bitcoin above $62,000 on August 9: 94.5% (+6.0 pts)
- For reference, traders price a 99.8% probability of BTC remaining above $60,000 on August 6
The repricing reflects the day’s resilient tape: ETF inflows, a record-setting Dow and peace-deal optimism around Hormuz negotiations have traders assigning rising odds that bitcoin holds its two-month range into the weekend — with Friday’s jobs report as the main risk event.
Data: Polymarket (gamma-api + clob), indicative only. This article is informational and does not constitute investment advice; always do your own research.